Framsóknarflokkurinn would be part of 13 of the 15 possible coalition government combinations, according to the prediction. Vinstri grænir (the Left Greens) would be part of 12 of the 15 possible combinations, Viðreisn (the Reform Party) ten, and Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (the Independence Party) and Samfylkingin (the Social Democrats) seven each.
The prediction lists all possible government combinations according to the polls, though some are far more likely than others.
According to the prediction, no three-party government is possible and the current government would therefore not continue. There are seven combinations of four-party governments and eight possible five-party government combinations.
According to the prediction, nine of the parties standing for election will succeed in securing seats in Alþingi. Ten parties are standing nationwide and one is standing in a single electoral district.
The latest MMR poll was conducted between 15th and 17th September and shows a slight swing to the left.
Part of this swing is the 8.6 percent of respondents who said they plan to vote for Sósíalistaflokkurinn (the Socialist Party)—the second-highest polling in the party’s short history.
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn registered 20 percent support, which sees it remain the biggest party, but is a significant drop from past polls and the last election. Vinstri grænir polled 12 percent, Samfylkingin 13 percent, and Píratar (the Pirates) 12 percent.
Miðflokkurinn (the Centre Party) would drop out of parliament according to the poll, with 4.5 percent—or half a percent below the threshold required to secure seats.
The current government of Vinstri grænir, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, and Framsóknarflokkurinn maintains the support of a majority of voters, but support for the parties individually would only return 31 MPs; not enough for a majority. In fact, the latest MMR poll predicts it will be impossible to form a three-party government.
There are several four-party coalition possibilities open, according to the poll, though none without Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn and only two without Framsóknarflokkurinn.
About the election
All Icelandic citizens (ríkisborgarar) aged over 18 are eligible to vote.
The Multicultural and Information Centre has created a comprehensive election website in English, which can be seen here.
With just days to go until the 25th September election, RÚV English is covering politics almost every day under the “Election 2021” tag. There will be an election special of The Week in Iceland today, and live election night coverage.